ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC (ECO-ECO) MODELLING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS RIVER BASINS: IMPACT OF LAND COVER CHANGES ON SOIL EROSION

摘要

This research presents recently introduced approach by authors of the Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) modelling using the Intensity of Erosion and Outflow (IntErO) model for the assessment of soil erosion intensity and the impacts of different land covers on sediment yield. The Eco-Eco modelling approach has been applied in one of the sub-basins of the River Lim in the Northeast Montenegro: Bijeli Potok River Basin (2.9 km2). Land use scenarios were simulated in the model aiming to define the optimal scenario of agricultural production. The Ecological (Eco-) modeling demonstrated that the real soil loss under current conditions is 307.16 m3yr-1 (105.91 per km2). If agricultural production is intensified, introducing the seed potato production on 4.4 ha of the studied river basin, the model calculated a soil loss of 312.96 m3yr-1 as sediment yield (107.91 per km2). The negative effects (caused with the intensification of agricultural production) were decreased using the measure of afforestation balancing with the identical surface of 3 ha (from meadows to forests). The model calculated that afforestation would result in a decrease of sediment yield to 306.46 m3yr-1 (105.67 per km2). The Economic (-Eco) modeling revealed that the investment (total cost) of €3,385 per hectare is needed for the establishment of the intensive agricultural – seed potato production. Market value of the final product is calculated to be €8,500 per hectare annually (yield of 17 tons per hectare); Profit €5,115; Net profit: €4,558. As an integral part of Eco-Eco modelling, the investment for the protection of the area with afforestation (implemented through the Government measures). Farmers should strive to get economic benefits, while respecting at the same time sustainable ecological and in this specific case: river basin - watershed management. The research results show that the application of the Eco-Eco modelling, by using the IntErO model for studying the effect of soil erosion and possible land use for intensive seed potato production in the selected River Basin provides cost effective solutions for the benefit of the local population.