Estimating the elimination feasibility in the 'end game' of control efforts for parasites subjected to regular mass drug administration: Methods and their application to schistosomiasis

摘要

Author summary Critical questions remain regarding the potential for achieving elimination of helminth (worm) infections, and methods are needed to quickly estimate the probability of achieving elimination over specific timeframes. Here, we make use of methods in mathematical epidemiology to propose an estimator of elimination potential, and then apply this estimator of Reffthe number of parasites produced by a single reproductive parasite at a given stage in the transmission cycle, over the parasite's lifetimeas a so-called elimination feasibility coefficient,' or ' We compare this metric to commonly used metrics of population viability for the parasitic disease schistosomiasis. The value of this estimator is that it allows us to determine whether an elimination program is succeeding and how much effort might be required to bring it to completion.