Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests

摘要

Insect pests, as widely tolerant and adaptable organisms, may be less distinctly affected by climate change than other insect species. The changing climate may affect the occurrence and impact of the native pests both negatively and positively (increased importance of thermophilous and xerophilous species and decreased importance of psychrophilous ones, noxious abundances of several species also in higher altitudes, decrease of many pests by frost-free winters, low humidity, weather extremes, increased numbers of antagonists, and phenological discrepancy with the host plant). Expansions of new pests into the territory of the Czech Republic, caused by climate change, will be very limited. A small number of greenhouse pests may be expected to occur in outdoor conditions. Increased temperatures may cause a slight increase of non-indigenous invasive insect species and migratory pests. In Central Europe the climate change will intensify the effects of other factors. In the next 20–50 years, the changes in species composition and importance of insect pests of plants will be caused by factors in the following order: (l) introductions of non-indigenous species, (2) new approaches in pest control, (3–4) changes in crop cultivation and representation of crops, (3–4) climate change, (5) other causes (unexpected shifts of ranges, changes in food preferences of insect species, etc.).