Cross-regional emergency scheduling planning for petroleum based on the supernetwork model

摘要

Petroleum, the most important energy source in the world, plays an essential role in securing economic development. If a petroleum shortage happens, it will severely disrupt production and life. Cross-regional emergency scheduling can effectively alleviate a petroleum shortage and further enhance the efficiency of the emergency response. Considering the general lack of focus on cross-regional petroleum dispatching management, we propose a three-layer emergency scheduling network for petroleum based on a supernetwork model that can increase the regional emergency correlation by adding a transfer management process. Then, we compare the total demand for petroleum and the emergency costs considered in the petroleum emergency scheduling supernetwork model (the single-region and the cross-region scenarios). The result shows that the cross-regional emergency scheduling pattern can effectively enhance the efficiency of the emergency preparations and reduce the emergency costs in most cases. However, when the vulnerabilities in the cross-regional link grow or the regional linkage decreases, the effect of single-regional scheduling is better. In addition, the advantages of the cross-regional emergency scheduling network will be strengthened with an increase in its maximum emergency capability. Nonetheless, this advantage will disappear when the petroleum demand in the crisis layer reaches the maximum emergency response capacity. Finally, according to the comparative analysis simulation among scenarios, certain strategic policy recommendations are suggested to improve the petroleum emergency scheduling ability in regions. These recommendations include strengthening the cross-regional coordination mechanism, increasing the modes of petroleum transportation and enhancing the carrying capacity of regional emergency routes.