The Impact of Different Weather Files on London Detached Residential Building Performance—Deterministic, Uncertainty, and Sensitivity Analysis on CIBSE TM48 and CIBSE TM49 Future Weather Variables Using CIBSE TM52 as Overheating Criteria

摘要

Though uncertainties of input variables may have significant implications on building simulations, they are quite often not identified, quantified, or included in building simulations results. This paper considers climatic deterministic, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis through a series of simulations using the CIBSE UKCIP02 future weather years, CIBSE TM48 for design summer years (DSYs), and the latest CIBSE TM49 DSY future weather data which incorporates the UKCP09 projections to evaluate the variance and the impact of differing London future weather files on indoor operative temperature of a detached dwelling in the United Kingdom using the CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria. The work analyses the variability of comparable weather data set to identify the most influential weather parameters that contribute to thermal comfort implications for these dwellings. The choice of these weather files is to ascertain their differences, as their development is underpinned by different climatic projections. The overall pattern of the variability of the UKCIP02 and UKCP09 Heathrow weather data sets under Monte Carlo sensitivity consideration do not seem to be very different from each other. The deterministic results show that the operative temperatures of the UKCIP02 are slightly higher than those of UKCP09, with the UKCP09 having a narrow range of operative temperatures. The Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis quantified and affirmed the dry bulb and radiant temperatures as the most influential weather parameters that affect thermal comfort on dwellings.