Analysis of CO 2 Emission Performance and Abatement Potential for Municipal Industrial Sectors in Jiangsu, China

摘要

As the main source of CO 2 emissions in China, the industrial sector has faced pressure for reducing emissions. To achieve the target of 50% reduction of industrial carbon intensity by 2020 based on the 2005 level, it is urgent to formulate specific CO 2 emission mitigation strategies in the provincial industrial sector. In order to provide decision-making support for the development and implementation of mitigation policy, our undesirable slack based measure (SBM) model is firstly applied to evaluate the industrial CO 2 emission efficiency under total-factor frame (TFICEE) in 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu Province, the largest CO 2 emitter in China. Then, we analyze space-time distribution and distributional evolution tendency of TFICEE by using the GIS visualization method and kernel density estimation, respectively. Finally, we utilize the industrial abatement model to estimate the CO 2 abatement potential of Jiangsu’s industrial sector. The empirical results show that there exists a significant spatial inequality of TFICEE across various regions in Jiangsu, but the regional disparity has been narrowing during our study period. Additionally, average annual industrial CO 2 emission reductions in Jiangsu Province can attain 15,654.00 (ten thousand tons), accounting for 28.2% of its average annual actual emissions, which can be achieved by improving production technology, adjusting industrial structure and raising the level of industry concentration.