Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in mixed cropping system of Punjab

摘要

The climate change has important and measurable effects in Pakistan. The objective of this paper was to measure these effects on wheat productivity in mixed zone of Punjab province. A time series data from 1980-81 to 2008-09 was used to achieve the desired objective. The impact of climate change on wheat productivity was analyzed along with some economic incentives. The results of the analysis have shown that one degree centigrade increase in mean minimum temperature at sowing stage will increase wheat productivity by 146.57 kg ha-1. At vegetation stage the increase in mean maximum temperature will reduce productivity, although non significant, by speeding up vegetative growth and reducing grain development period. At maturity stage, the productivity gain will be 136.63 kg ha-1 as result of one degree centigrade increase in mean maximum temperature. The adequate amount of rainfall increases wheat productivity by 275.77 kg ha-1. The productivity response to economic variables was relatively flat and constant, 94.43 kg ha-1. It was thus concluded that the climate change is the major determinant of wheat productivity at each stage of wheat growth.