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The energy demand estimation for Turkey using differential evolution algorithm

机译:使用差分进化算法估算土耳其的能源需求

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The energy demand estimation commands great importance for both developing and developed countries in terms of the economy and country resources. In this study, the differential evolution algorithm (DE) was used to forecast the long-term energy demand in Turkey. In addition to being employed for solving regularoptimization problems, DE is also a global, meta-heuristic algorithm that enables fast, reliable and operative stochastic searches based on population. Considering the correlation between the increase in certain economic indicators in Turkey and the increase of energy consumption, two equations were used—one applying the linear form and the other the quadratic form. Turkey’s long-term energy demand from 2012 to 2031 was estimated through the DE method in three different scenarios and in terms of the gross domestic product, import, export and population. To prove the success of the DE method in addressing the energy demand problem, the DE method was compared to other methods found in the literature. Results showed that the proposed DE method was more successful than the other methods. Furthermore, the future projections of energy demand obtainedusing the proposed method were compared to the indicators of energy demand estimated and observed by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources.
机译:就经济和国家资源而言,能源需求估算对发展中国家和发达国家都至关重要。在这项研究中,使用差分进化算法(DE)来预测土耳其的长期能源需求。除了用于解决常规优化问题外,DE还是一种全局的元启发式算法,它可以基于总体进行快速,可靠和可操作的随机搜索。考虑到土耳其某些经济指标的增长与能源消耗的增长之间的相关性,使用了两个方程式-一个采用线性形式,另一个采用二次形式。通过DE方法,在三种不同的情况下,根据国内生产总值,进口,出口和人口,通过DE方法估算了土耳其2012年至2031年的长期能源需求。为了证明DE方法在解决能源需求问题方面的成功,将DE方法与文献中发现的其他方法进行了比较。结果表明,提出的DE方法比其他方法更成功。此外,将使用该方法得出的未来能源需求预测与能源和自然资源部估算并观察到的能源需求指标进行了比较。

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