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Comparative Study of Backpropagation Algorithms in Forecasting Volatility of Crude Oil Price in Nigeria

机译:反向传播算法在预测尼日利亚原油价格波动中的比较研究

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This paper explores the application of artificial neural network in volatility forecasting. A recurrent neural network has been integrated in to GARCH model to form the hybrid model called GARCH-Neural model. The emphasis of the research is to investigate the performance of the variants of Backpropagation algorithms in training the proposed GARCHneural model. In the first place, EGARCH (3, 3) was identified in this paper most preferred model describing crude oil price volatility in Nigeria. Similarly, Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithms were found to be fastest in convergence and also provide most accurate predictions of the volatility when to other training techniques.
机译:本文探讨了人工神经网络在波动率预测中的应用。递归神经网络已集成到GARCH模型中,形成了称为GARCH-Neural模型的混合模型。该研究的重点是研究反向传播算法的变体在训练提出的GARCHneural模型中的性能。首先,本文确定了描述尼日利亚原油价格波动的最优选模型EGARCH(3,3)。同样,发现Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)训练算法收敛速度最快,并且在使用其他训练技术时也可以提供最准确的波动率预测。

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