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Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

机译:苏门答腊-安达曼俯冲带地震发生的概率

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Earthquake activities along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone (SASZ) were clarified using the derived frequency-magnitude distribution in terms of the (i) most probable maximum magnitudes, (ii) return periods and (iii) probabilities of earthquake occurrences. The northern segment of SASZ, along the western coast of Myanmar to southern Nicobar, was found to be capable of generating an earthquake of magnitude 6.1–6.4 Mw in the next 30–50 years, whilst the southern segment of offshore of the northwestern and western parts of Sumatra (defined as a high hazard region) had a short recurrence interval of 6-12 and 10-30 years for a 6.0 and 7.0 Mw magnitude earthquake, respectively, compared to the other regions. Throughout the area along the SASZ, there are 70– almost 100% probabilities of the earthquake with Mw up to 6.0 might be generated in the next 50 years whilst the northern segment had less than 50% chance of occurrence of a 7.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 year. Although Rangoon was defined as the lowest hazard among the major city in the vicinity of SASZ, there is 90% chance of a 6.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 years. Therefore, the effective mitigation plan of seismic hazard should be contributed.
机译:使用导出的频率-幅度分布,根据(i)最可能的最大震级,(ii)返回周期和(iii)地震发生的概率,阐明了苏门答腊-安达曼俯冲带(SASZ)沿岸的地震活动。 SASZ的北部,沿着缅甸的西海岸到尼科巴南部,被发现能够在未来30–50年内产生6.1–6.4 Mw的地震,而西北和西部的近海南部与其他地区相比,苏门答腊的部分地区(定义为高危地区)在6.0兆瓦级地震和7.0兆瓦级地震中的复发间隔较短,分别为6-12年和10-30年。在整个SASZ地区,未来50年内可能会发生70–100%的Mw高达6.0的地震,而北部地区在该地区发生7.0 Mw地震的机会不到50%。未来50年。尽管仰光被定义为SASZ附近主要城市中危害最小的地区,但未来50年发生6.0兆瓦地震的可能性为90%。因此,应制定有效的减灾计划。

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