FIELD: mining.;SUBSTANCE: seismic mode is analysed, as well as features of tectonic composition of active zones of subduction. A block of Earth's crust (L~100 km) is identified within a frontal wedge of the subduction zone, and the block is limited by fractures that are orthogonal to the zone of subduction. The fact of long-term (T80 years) absence of strongest earthquakes (M≥7.7) inside the identified block is determined, as well as availability of seismic activity at its borders. The conclusion is made that an earthquake shall take place in the nearest 1-5 years.;EFFECT: higher credibility of forecast.;1 dwg
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