Mobilidade Populacional E Mudan?a Climática: Cenários Para O Brasil

摘要

Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} The global environmental change taking place in the contemporary world leads to challenges in all of the scientific disciplines. Inside Demography, there are some difficulties to relate demographic components and environmental changes since its foundation, because although environmental elements are implicate to population dynamics, they remain to be as a marginal theme. For migration studies there are certainly lacks in researches in which both theoretical and empirical dimensions are analyzed. This study seeks to address this require, even if it doesn′t has the ambition to solve the problem. The pursued objective is to relate one specific environmental phenomenon - the climate change – with the migration dynamics. Climate change has been chosen due to its great and diverse impacts, which effects human displacements in several scales of time and space. Migration is expected to be the most important and dynamic demographic component in the near future. Within this, we project qualitative migration tendencies in Brazil based on climate change trends. Moreover, the recent context of rising importance of mobilities shows that different types of drivers should be explored. As some final findings it is highlighted that the major Brazilian regions are expected to respond to climate change in specific ways, in respond to a set of very miscellaneous risks. Migration studies should contribute to the inclusion of the environmental variables as a central one in their field and thus enhance the mobility studies related to climate change.