Impacto das Varia??es no Crédito Rural e no Investimento em Pesquisa Agrícola na Produtividade da Agricultura Brasileira Contemporanea

摘要

The fall in productivity of the main crops may be related to the reduction of investments in research. Moreover, subsidized rural credit may be necessary for an increase in productivity, since this is a key factor for production and sectoral modernization. Realizing the relevance of these two points, this work uses a DSGE model with closed-economy, no government, and two-sector. The results indicate that low investment in research led to low productivity of the agricultural sector until 2011, which recovered in 2012 and 2013. On the other hand, subsidized rural credit presented zero results until 2009, and in 2010 and 2011, the result was positive, but became negative in 2012 and 2013. Among the two policies proposed, the rural credit subsidy presented better results than agricultural research, because the performance of the product was higher in the first case.