AN ESTIMATION OF COSTS AND PUBLIC-HEALTH BENEFITS BY THE PM10 MITIGATION IN MEXICALI, BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

摘要

This research provides a first approach to the assessment of the health benefits and health costs that would be generated in Mexicali if there were or were not control measures implemented, which could create an impact in the decrease of concentrations of particulate matter ≤ 10 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ) in the air of the city. Several different scenarios were established to study the projected impact for the 2013─2020 periods. The public health benefits (PHB) are calculated based on the exposure-response function (ERF) estimated using local data, as well as ERF obtained from scientific literature applied previously in local mexican studies. Using a discount rate of 3 %, total costs and total social benefits are brought to present value and are shown as a percentage of the state’s gross domestic product (GDP) reported in 2011. In Mexicali, the study estimates that if there were no measures taken to reduce PM 10 pollution in the studied years, there would be a social cost of around $1659 (lower value: $1164, higher value: $2503) millions of dollars for the period (2013─2020). This represents 5.59 % (3.92 %, 8.43 %) of the GDP. If there were measures taken to reduce the PM 10 concentrations by about 8 % a year, in order to comply with the federal standards in 2020, there would be savings of around $633 ($444, $955) millions of dollars for the studied period. This would represent 2.13 % (1.50 %, 3.22 %) of the GDP. This study justifies the implementation of control measures for air pollution in Mexicali.