Sensibilidade intrasazonal de um downscaling dinamico de precipita??o (1971-2000): uma análise na bacia hidrográfica do A?ude Castanh?o-CE

摘要

In arid regions as northeast part of Brazil (NEB) artificial water reservoirs are essences to accumulate water in the rainy period and to supply its demand for release in the dry period. For this fact, the knowledge of the pluviometric variability in the hydrographic basin of these reservoirs is important. The results presented here show comparisons between observed data and simulation from dynamic modeling for the basin of the Castanh?o-Ce Dam with emphases the intra seasonal scale. The interanual variability of intra-seasonal precipitation (1971-2000) simulated by the spectral regional model (MRE) has a systematic bias that underestimation the observed totals (pentads and biweekly), mainly in the period of February the May, and overestimates these totals in January and June. However, were also verified bigger (lesser) quantitative differences in these totals in the sub estimation in the decades of 1970-1980-1990 e (1990-2000). For climatic years of contrast (La Ni?a, El Ni?o and Normal), the MRE in the scales pentad, biweekly and monthly captured with good performance the signal of the anomaly in relation to the precipitation observed, predominating positive anomaly for the years of La Ni?a, and around the average the refusal for the Normal years and of El Ni?o, in particular during February the May. This characteristic also was verified in the precipitation data observed in the basin.