Impacto de perfis de rádio oculta??o GNSS na qualidade das Previs?es de tempo do CPTEC/INPE

摘要

Studies about the sensibility of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to uncertainty in the initial conditions have revealed the actual contribution of the data assimilation on the description of future atmosphere state. Among other data sources, the atmospheric profiles obtained by radio occultation Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) have become an additional tool in the reduction of the meteorological data base deficiencies. In order to explore the benefits of that additional data source in the NWP generated by the CPTEC/INPE general circulation model, some experiments were carried out by assimilating geopotencial height and humidity atmospheric profiles obtained by Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) constellation data. The period of these experiments were the months of January and July of 2009. The results show that this data assimilation exhibits a significant positive impact during the summer on all the state variables. Results also show a positive improvement during the summer for all state variables, with expressive improvements in the valid forecasts time range (anomaly correlation above 60%), which were in some cases greater than 48 hours. This impact was still greater over South America with positive results even during the winter.