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Fat Tailed Distributions for Deaths in Conflicts and Disasters

机译:冲突和灾难中死亡人数的胖尾分布

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We study the statistics of human deaths from wars and similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man-made situations show power law decay for the largest sizes, with similar exponent values. Comparisons with natural disasters, when event sizes are measured in terms of physical quantities (e.g., energy released in earthquake, volume of rainfall, land area affected in forest fires, etc.) also show striking resemblances. The universal patterns in their statistics suggest that some subtle similarities in their mechanisms and dynamics might be responsible.
机译:我们研究了由于战争和类似的人为冲突以及自然灾害造成的死亡人数。在自然灾害和人为情况下丧生的人数的概率分布表明,幂律衰减最大,具有相似的指数值。与自然灾害相比,当以物理量(例如,地震释放的能量,降雨量,受森林大火影响的土地面积等)来衡量事件大小时,也显示出惊人的相似之处。他们的统计数据中的普遍规律表明,它们的机制和动力学上有些微妙的相似之处可能是造成这种情况的原因。

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