Potential economic impact from the adoption of Brachiaria hybrids resistant to spittlebugs in livestock systems of Colombia, Mexico and Central America

摘要

PastureresearchledbytheInternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture(CIAT)andnationalinstitutionsduringthe80'sand90's,contributedwithnewBrachiariaspecieswithvariouscharacteristicsandusesthatwereincorporatedwithsuccessinlivestockproductionsystemsinthelowlandsofLatinAmerica.Brachiariabrizantha,Brachiariadictyoneura,BrachiariahumidicolaandBrachiariaruziziensisaresomeoftheforagematerialsreleasedbyresearchinstitutionsintheregion.Despiteitsindisputableadvantages,theBrachiariagenuspresentslimitationsbecauseofitslowtolerancetoprolongeddroughtsanditshighsusceptibilitytospittlebug,apestthatcausesconsiderableeconomiclossestothelivestockindustry.Thus,mostrecentresearchinCIAT'sBrachiariabreedingprogramhasfocusedonthedevelopmentofasecondgenerationofBrachiariagrasses:outstandingagronomiccharacteristics,establishmentvigor,goodsproutcapacity,highbiomassproductionandnutritionalquality,goodseedproduction,resistanttoRhizotocniaandtomultiplespittlebugspecies.TheresultsofthisefforthaveconveyedtotherecentreleaseofMulatograss,thefirsthybridoftheBrachiariagenusobtainedbyCIAT'sgeneticimprovementprogram.InthewaitinglistofthesecondgenerationofBrachiariagrassesishybrid#4624(CIAT36087),tobereleasedin2005,havingasimilarforagequalityasMulatoandwithalltheattributesdefinedforthesecondgenerationofBrachiariagrasses.Moreover,severalotherhybridsareinadvancedstagesofevaluationandclosetobeingreleasedascommercialcultivars.ThepotentialeconomicimpactoftheadoptionofnewBrachiariahybridsonlivestockproductionsystemswasevaluatedusingtheEconomicModelMODEXC.TworegionswereconsideredinColombia:theNorthernCoastandtheEasternPlains.InMexico,thetropicalregion;andinCentralAmerica,itssixconstituentcountries.Themodelestimatestheeconomicbenefitsattributabletotheutilizationofthenewmaterials,disaggregatingpercountry,region,ecosystem,productionsystemandlargesocialgroups(consumersandproducers).Itworkswithtwotypesofparameters:thetechnicalonesthatcharacterizethenewtechnologyanditsprocessofdissemination,andtheeconomiconesrepresentingtheconditionsofmarketsupplyanddemandofbothbeefandmilkaffectedbythetechnicalchange.Thebenefitsofthenewtechnology(fromtheyear2007)werecalculatedforaperiodof20yearsandtheresultswereexpressedintermsofthenetpresentvalue(NPV)andannuities.Theestimatesweremadeusingalternativelyaneconomicframeworkofopenandclosedeconomy.Inaclosedeconomy,withoutinternationaltrade,theNPVofthetechnologicalbenefitswasestimatedatUS$4,166million,ofwhich54%wouldbegeneratedbythemarketingofbeefandtherestbymilk.MostofthebenefitswereconcentratedinMexico,US$2,831(68%);followedbyColombia,US$960million(23%),andCentralAmerica,US$363million(9%).Inordertohavecriteriaontheextentoftheestimatedtechnologicalbenefits,thevalueofbeefandmilkyieldduring2003wascalculatedinthereferencecountries.TheNPVisequivalentto44%ofthevalueofthatyear,rangingbetween16%inHondurasand78%inNicaragua.Theresultsshowtheimportanceofthedualpurposelivestockproductionsystem.Inmostcountries,morethanhalfofthetechnologicalbenefitswasgeneratedinthissystem:Colombia70%,CentralAmerica62%,andMexico50%.Whenacountryisself-sufficientandthesurplusresultingfromthetechnicalimprovementsismarketeddomestically,thebenefitsaretransferredtoconsumerswhoarefavoredwiththereductioninprices,makingpossibleforthemtoincreaseconsumption.Inthecaseofaclosedeconomy,consumerswouldcapture83%oftotalbenefits.Tradeliberalizationimpliesare-distributiveprocessfavoringproducers.Exportpurchasesincreasetotaldemandandrestrainthefallofdomesticprices.Inanopen-marketeconomy,theshareofbenefitstoproducerswouldriseto46%.Researchinvestmentisconceivedasaprimarymechanismtoachievetwoofthemostbasicsocialgoals:1)povertyreductionandimprovementinequity,and2)thepromotionofeconomicgrowth.Havingthispremise,inordertoestablishtowhatextentthistechnicalchangecontributestothefulfillmentofthesegoals,theacquiredbenefitswereestimatedforthemostvulnerablepopulationgroups:a)Thetwoquintilesofpoorconsumers,representing40%oftotalpopulation,andb)thesmallproducers.Inbothschemes,openorclosedeconomy,bothgroupsreceivemorethanone-fourthofthebenefitsfromtechnicalchange,27%and31%,respectively.ThisisequivalenttoaNPVrangingbetweenUS$1,137to1,303millions.Becausethehybridsrequirebettersoilsorfertilizerinputstomaintainforagebiomassproductivityandquality,thestudywasmadewithconservativehypothesesaboutchangesinproductivityandthesizeoftheareatobeplanted.Despitethedefinitionofthelevelsofcriticalvariables,especiallythoseassociatedwiththeproductivityandtheadoptionofthenewBrachiariahybrids,conservativecriteriawereconsideredinordertoavoidoverestimatingthebenefits;itisimportanttoevaluatethesensitivityofthese,againstundesirablechangesofthosevariables.Forthispurpose,threealternativescenarioswereestablished:1)Thereductionof50%oftheareacultivatedwithnewBrachiariahybrids,2)thereductionof10%intheyieldsofthenewmaterials,and3)theincreaseof50%inthetotaltimeofadoption.Themostcriticalvariableinthedeterminationoftheamountofbenefitsisyield(productivity)ofthenewtechnology,intermsofbeefandmilkperhectare.Theelasticit