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Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

机译:基于主体模型和地理信息系统的景观流行病学建模

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摘要

A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM) of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS). For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.
机译:提出了一种景观流行病学建模框架,该框架将来自已建立的基于空间代理的疟疾模型(ABM)的模拟输出与地理信息系统(GIS)集成在一起。对于肯尼亚的一个研究区域,构建了五种景观方案,其中两种蚊虫控制措施的覆盖水平各不相同。对于每种情况,都将显示地图,以显示从750个模拟运行的结果中获得的三个输出指标的平均分布。执行热点分析以检测统计上显着的热点和冷点。对于所有情况,使用带有圆半变异函数的普通克里金法进行额外的空间分析。在单个建模框架内将基于流行病学模拟的结果与空间分析技术相集成,可以成为进行各种疾病控制活动(例如探索新的生物学见解,监测流行病学景观变化以及指导资源分配以进行进一步调查)的宝贵工具。

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