An increase in household debt in relation to a country's GDP is, at least in the short to medium term, a strong predictor of a weakening economy, according to an analysis of data from 30 nations by Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner. The researchers use slowing growth and rising unemployment as key indicators of weakening. They find that the household debt factor is a better predictor of downturns than the debt of nonfinancial firms.
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机译：根据Atif R. Mian，Amir Sufi和Emil对来自30个国家的数据进行的分析，至少在短期至中期内，家庭债务相对于一个国家GDP的增长是强有力的预测。韦纳。研究人员将增长放缓和失业率上升作为减弱的关键指标。他们发现，与非金融公司的债务相比，家庭债务因素更能预测经济下滑。
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