Energy revolution: From a fossil energy era to a new energy era

摘要

This paper aims to predict the future situation of global energy development. In view of this, we reviewed the history of energy use and understood that new energy sources will usher in a new era following oil & gas, coal and wood one after another in the past time. Although the fossil energy sources are still plenty in the world, great breakthroughs made in some key technologies and the increasing demand for ecological environmental protection both impel the third time of transformation from oil & gas to new energy sources. Sooner or later, oil, gas, coal and new energy sources will each account for a quarter of global energy consumption in the new era, specifically speaking, accounting for 32.6%, 23.7%, 30.0% and 13.7% respectively. As one of the largest coal consumer, China will inevitably face up to the situation of tripartite confrontation of the coal, oil & gas and new energy. The following forecasting results were achieved. First, the oil will be in a stable period and its annual production peak will be around 2040, reaching up to 45?×?108?t. Second, the natural gas will enter the heyday period and its annual production peak will be around 2060, reaching up to 4.5?×?1012?m3, which will play a pivotal role in the future energy sustainable development. Third, the coal has entered a high-to-low-carbon transition period, and its direct use and the discharged pollutants will be significantly reduced. In 2050, the coal will be dropped to 25% of the primary energy mix. Last, the development and utilization of new energy sources has been getting into the golden age and its proportion in the primary energy mix will be substantially enhanced. On this basis, we presented some proposals for the future energy development in China. At first, we should understand well that China's energy production and consumption has its own characteristics. Under the present situation, we should strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal resources, which is the key to solving our energy and environmental issues. Then, under the low oil price circumstance, we should keep 200 million tons of annual oil production as “the bottom line” so as to ensure national energy security and to accelerate tight gas, shale gas and other unconventional resources development. In 2030, the annual natural gas production will reach up to more than 300?Bcm. Finally, the development and utilization of new energy resources should be further strengthened and non-fossil energy sources will be expected to reach as high as 20% of the primary energy consumption by 2030.