As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environment conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level are difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the lower reaches of Tarim River, China, through the use of several methods including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and multivariate analysis. An assessment of the changes over the period of 1985-2010 in four key ecosystem services was undertaken to determine the effects of the Chinese government’s ecological rehabilitation initiatives implemented in 2000. These ecosystem services included water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration and grain production. Significant conversions of woodland and grassland to farmland were found to have resulted in weaken soil conservation and carbon sequestration, but decreased the trend by the water conveyance project. The total grain production increased with the water dropped off in the lower reaches of Tarim River. Although some positive policy results have been achieved over the last two decades, large uncertainty remains regarding long-term policy effects on the sustainability of ecological rehabilitation performance and ecosystem service enhancement. To reduce such uncertainty, this study calls for an adaptive management approach to regional ecological rehabilitation policy to be adopted, with a focus on the effective control between people activities and environment.
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