Transport Turnover with Spatial Econometric Perspective under the Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction in China

摘要

The method of spatial econometrics model is used to study the space correlation of road turnover (freight and passenger) among the 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China. Since some factors (such as the level of economic development, industrial structure, and population) may impact the road turnover (freight and passenger), these indexes are used as variables to reflect the influence in this model. The data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China in 2012 is collected to analyze the method. The results show that when the characteristics of turnover in a region are analyzed, it is necessary to consider the influence of its surrounding areas in space. Different scenarios were established according to different economic growth and degree of emission reduction to analyze the influence of the reduction of road turnover in regions with high spatial cluster effect to the whole country. We also carried out how to use the space effect of road turnover to the energy saving and emission reduction in the transportation industry.