On the Role of Fluctuations in the Modeling of Complex Systems

摘要

The study of models is ubiquitous in sciences like physics, chemistry, ecology, biology or sociology. Models are used to explain experimental facts or to make new predictions. For any system, one can distinguish several levels of description. In the simplest mean-field like description the dynamics is described in terms of spatially averaged quantities while in a microscopic approach local properties are taken into account and local fluctuations for the relevant variables are present. The properties predicted by these two different approaches may be drastically different. In a large body of research literature concerning complex systems this problem is often overlooked and simple mean-field like approximation are used without asking the question of the robustness of the corresponding predictions. The goal of this paper is twofold, first to illustrate the importance of the fluctuations in a self-contained and pedagogical way, by revisiting two different classes of problems where thorough investigations have been conducted (equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics). Second, we present our original research on the dynamics of population of annual plants which are competing among themselves for just one resource (water) through a stochastic dynamics. Depending on the observable considered, the mean-field like and microscopic approaches agree or totally disagree. There is not a general criterion allowing to decide a priori when the two approaches will agree.