Predicting Prognosis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH): Performance of ICH Score Is Not Improved by Adding Oral Anticoagulant Use

摘要

Background The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is a commonly used prognostic model for 30-day mortality in ICH, based on five independent predictors (ICH volume, location, Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and intraventricular extension). Use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) is also associated with mortality but was not considered in the ICH score. We investigated (a) whether the predictive performance of ICH score is similar in OAC-ICH and non-OAC-ICH and (b) whether addition of OAC use to the ICH score increases the prognostic performance of the score. Methods We retrospectively selected all consecutive adult non-traumatic ICH cases (three hospitals, region South-Limburg, the Netherlands 2004–2009). Mortality at 30?days was recorded. Using univariable and multivariable logistic regression, association between OAC use and 30-day mortality was tested. Then (a) we computed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for ICH score and determined the area under the curve (AUC) in OAC-ICH and non-OAC-ICH. Then (b) we created a New ICH score by adding OAC use to the ICH score. We calculated correlation between 30-day mortality and ICH score, respectively, New ICH score using Spearman correlation test. We computed ROC curves and calculated the AUC. Results We analyzed 1,232 cases, 282 (22.9%) were OAC related ICH. Overall, 30-day mortality was 39.3%. OAC use was independently associated with 30-day mortality (OR 2.09, 95% CI, 1.48–2.95; p ?