High Spatial Resolution Simulation of Annual Wind Energy Yield Using Near-Surface Wind Speed Time Series

摘要

In this paper a methodology is presented that can be used to model the annual wind energy yield ( AEY mod ) on a high spatial resolution (50 m × 50 m) grid based on long-term (1979–2010) near-surface wind speed ( U S ) time series measured at 58 stations of the German Weather Service (DWD). The study area for which AEY mod is quantified is the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Comparability of the wind speed time series was ensured by gap filling, homogenization and detrending. The U S values were extrapolated to the height 100 m ( U 100m,emp ) above ground level (AGL) by the Hellman power law. All U 100m,emp time series were then converted to empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDF emp ). 67 theoretical cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were fitted to all CDF emp and their goodness of fit (GoF) was evaluated. It turned out that the five-parameter Wakeby distribution (WK5) is universally applicable in the study area. Prior to the least squares boosting (LSBoost)-based modeling of WK5 parameters, 92 predictor variables were obtained from: (i) a digital terrain model (DTM), (ii) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA)-Interim reanalysis wind speed data available at the 850 hPa pressure level ( U 850hPa ), and (iii) the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) Land Cover (CLC) data. On the basis of predictor importance ( PI) and the evaluation of model accuracy, the combination of predictor variables that provides the best discrimination between U 100m,emp and the modeled wind speed at 100 m AGL ( U 100m,mod ), was identified. Results from relative PI -evaluation demonstrate that the most important predictor variables are relative elevation (Φ) and topographic exposure (τ) in the main wind direction. Since all WK5 parameters are available, any manufacturer power curve can easily be applied to quantify AEY mod .