The Profitability of the Strategy Linking Fundamental, Portfolio and Technical Analysis on the Polish Capital Market

摘要

In the article, several methods of taking investment decisions are described: a fundamental, portfolio, and technical analysis. They constitute different approaches which are convenient for different types of investors with various expectations and time horizons of their investments. The simultaneous combination of these three analyses is not popular. The aim of this study is to test the effectiveness of simultaneous use of a fundamental analysis, portfolio analysis, and technical analysis for shares quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) in 2000–2007. The research hypothesis is advanced that the concurrent-linked application of a fundamental, portfolio, and technical analysis brings better results than the separate use of these analyses. Models of capital market, such as CAPM and APT, have been used, as well as P/E ratio, Return on Equity (RoE), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The combination of a financial analysis, technical indicators, and models of the capital market in order to invest on the stock exchange is author’s own method. In general, the survey has been carried out on the grounds of quantitative methods (financial analysis, regression model, and multi regression model) and a comparative analysis. The results of the research have been used to create diversified portfolios on the WSE. It occurs that the concurrent use of the three analyses brings the highest rate of return of a portfolio.