The Business Cycle and Cycles in The Banking Sector in The Polish Economy in The Years 2000?2017

摘要

Apart from general business cycles, market economies are characterized by their specific cycles, which also include banking cycles. Fluctuations whose sequence over time creates the banking cycles are absolute or/and relative changes in the activity of banks, manifested in the form of oscillations in the supply of money and bank credits granted for investment or consumption purposes. The aim of this article is to analyze the influence of general business cycles on changes in the activity of the central bank and commercial banks, and to examine a returnable relationship between banking activities and business cycles. The paper consists of two parts. The first one presents a theoretical hypothesis connected with the analyzed relations. The second part contains the results of the empirical analysis of the morphology of the cycles identified in the Polish economy. In the process of identifying the cycles under analysis, the concept of deviation cycles was taken into account. Deseasonalization was conducted using the Tramo/Seats procedure as part of the Demetra 2.0 package, and in the process of isolating cycles, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was accepted.