Epidemiology of dengue fever in Hanoi from 2002 to 2010 and its meteorological determinants

摘要

BackgroundDengue fever (DF) is a growing public health problem in Vietnam. The disease burden in Vietnam has been increasing for decades. In Hanoi, in contrast to many other regions, extrinsic drivers such as weather have not been proved to be predictive of disease frequency, which limits the usefulness of such factors in an early warning system.AimsThe purpose of this research was to review the epidemiology of DF transmission and investigate the role of weather factors contributing to occurrence of DF cases.MethodsMonthly data from Hanoi (2002–2010) were used to test the proposed model. Descriptive time-series analysis was conducted. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis assuming a negative binomial distribution was established through several models. The predictors used were lags of 1–3 months previous observations of mean rainfall, mean temperature, DF cases, and their interactions.ResultsDescriptive analysis showed that DF occurred annually and seasonally with an increasing time trend in Ha...