Metal Demand to Meet SDG Energy-related Goals

摘要

Ensuring energy access should be at the core of SDGs to support a healthy life for all. Among the SDGs, even though Target 12.2 includes the efficient use of natural resources, there is no explicit goal set for sustainable mineral use. Considering, however, that some metal supplies have drawn much attention in discussions of ‘critical metals,’ it is important to know their availability for a sustainable energy supply.In this paper, we chose two metals, copper and indium, and estimated their demand under various energy scenarios to see if those metals have sufficient availability. Copper is the most important material resource for the energy-related infrastructure. Indium is an example of a minor but critical metal for energy supply systems, and was therefore analyzed.The demand from energy supply systems accounts for a huge share of total copper demand. Our scenario analysis indicates that if we try to establish good energy access across the world as soon as possible, it may pose serious copper supply problems. An increase in demand that is too rapid would mean an increase not only in the absolute amount of demand but also before scrap could become available. The result is that primary copper demand could be quite huge, especially in the early stages of development. In that sense, copper may be a system-wide concern. Minor elements such as indium with huge applications in specific energy technologies are often called ‘energy critical metals,’ and our analysis of indium also supports this, because the system’s indium demand is huge. We conclude, however, that copper is one of the most critical metals for ensuring energy access for all.