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Genetic management strategies for controlling infectious diseases in livestock populations

机译:控制牲畜种群传染病的遗传管理策略

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This paper considers the use of disease resistance genes to control the transmission of infection through an animal population. Transmission is summarised by R0, the basic reproductive ratio of a pathogen. If R0 1.0 a major epidemic can occur, thus a disease control strategy should aim to reduce R0 below 1.0, e.g. by mixing resistant with susceptible wild-type animals. Suppose there is a resistance allele, such that transmission of infection through a population homozygous for this allele will be R02 R01, where R01 describes transmission in the wildtype population. For an otherwise homogeneous population comprising animals of these two groups, R0 is the weighted average of the two sub-populations: R0 = R01ρ+ R02 (1 - ρ), where ρ is the proportion of wildtype animals. If R01 1 and R02 1, the proportions of the two genotypes should be such that R0 ≤ 1, i.e. ρ ≤ (R0 - R02)/(R01 - R02). If R02 = 0, the proportion of resistant animals must be at least 1 - 1/R01. For an n genotype model the requirement is still to have R0 ≤ 1.0. Probabilities of epidemics in genetically mixed populations conditional upon the presence of a single infected animal were derived. The probability of no epidemic is always 1/(R0 + 1). When R0 ≤ 1 the probability of a minor epidemic, which dies out without intervention, is R0/(R0 + 1). When R0 1 the probability of a minor and major epidemics are 1/(R0 + 1) and (R0 - 1)/(R0 + 1). Wherever possible a combination of genotypes should be used to minimise the invasion possibilities of pathogens that have mutated to overcome the effects of specific resistance alleles.
机译:本文考虑了使用抗病基因控制动物种群中感染的传播。传播由病原体的基本繁殖率R0概括。如果R0> 1.0,则可能发生重大流行病,因此疾病控制策略应以将R0降至1.0以下为目标。通过与易感野生型动物混合抗性。假设存在抗性等位基因,因此通过该等位基因纯合子的感染传播将为R02 1并且R02 <1,则两个基因型的比例应为R0≤1,即ρ≤(R0-R02)/(R01-R02)。如果R02 = 0,则抗性动物的比例必须至少为1-1 / R01。对于n基因型模型,要求仍然是R0≤1.0。推导了以单个感染动物为条件的遗传混合种群中流行病的概率。无流行的可能性始终为1 /(R0 + 1)。当R0≤1时,在没有干预的情况下消失的轻微流行病的可能性为R0 /(R0 + 1)。当R0> 1时,次要和主要流行病的概率为1 /(R0 +1)和(R0-1)/(R0 +1)。在可能的情况下,应使用基因型的组合来最大程度地减少已经突变以克服特定抗性等位基因影响的病原体的入侵可能性。

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