Modeling spatio-temporal risk changes in the incidence of dengue fever in Saudi Arabia: a geographical information system case study

摘要

The aim of this study was to use geographical information systems to demonstrate the Dengue fever (DF) risk on a monthly basis in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia with the purpose to provide documentation serving to improve surveillance and monitor the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector. Getis-Ord Gi* statistics and a frequency index covering a five-year period (2006- 2010) were used to map DF and model the risk spatio-temporally. The results show that monthly hotspots were mainly concentrated in central Jeddah districts and that the pattern changes considerably with time. For example, on a yearly basis, for the month of January, the Burman district was identified as a low risk area in 2006, a high-risk area in 2007, medium risk in 2008, very low risk in 2009 and low risk in 2010. The results demonstrate that it would be useful to follow the monthly DF pattern, based on the average weekly frequency, as this can facilitate the allocation of resources for the treatment of the disease, preventing its prevalence and monitoring its vector.