Multi-criteria risk evaluation by integrating an analytical network process approach into GIS-based sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

摘要

ABSTRACT Geographic information system (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is commonly used to solve a range of complex spatial problems. We have incorporated an analytical network process (ANP) as a central part of MCDA and used this approach for land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSM). We used an ANP approach in combination with the concepts of global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, in order to minimize any associated errors. This approach was tested for a LSSM application in north-western Iran, using a methodology that consisted of three distinct phases. An ANP approach was used in the first phase to derive criteria weightings by analysing relevant criteria, which included topographic, hydrologic, climatologic, geological, and anthropological indicators. The second phase involved evaluating the uncertainty and sensitivity of areas susceptible to subsidence as a function of the derived weightings, using Monte Carlo simulations. The third phase then used a land subsidence inventory database to validate the results and to measure any improvement in accuracy following sensitivity analysis. Results indicated a 6% improvement in the accuracy of the ANP method as a result of using an integrated global sensitivity analysis.