Dynamical spatial modeling to simulate the forest scenario in Brazilian dry forest landscapes

摘要

ABSTRACT Caatinga is a biome located in Brazilian northeast region well known by the dry forest vegetation. The analyzed area called charcoaling zone has a great suppression of native vegetation to supply the charcoal market. Through the images from the Operational Linescan System sensor of LANDSAT 8, this paper demonstrates, in a spatial-temporal way, the degradation in landscapes of the Caatinga biome and the evaluation of the forest scenario. Thus, it has been possible to evaluate the changes experienced by the vegetation (2013–2016) and to identify the land use patterns and coverage and to quantify them according to the obtained satellite images. Agriculture and the exposed soil represent about 70% of the area, considering the growing of the anthropic area and consequently the emergence of several exposed soil areas. The simulation of the future scenarios was used by modeling with the application DINAMICA EGO, generating projections of the region of the coal for the year of 2019. In addition, the assessment of the forest effacement demonstrates decreased development of the forest and increased levels of exposed soil.