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EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION

机译:亚速海地区自然灾害的预警服务系统

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The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.
机译:本文介绍了用于发展亚速海地区极端水文气象事件预报系统的方法。由于在二十一世纪初发生了许多危险的极端事件,因此创建这样的系统的问题变得非常相关和重要。该预测系统名为EX-MARE,于2014年开始开发,是一套复杂的数学模型。对于每种类型的水文气象事件,都设计了建模组件。 EX-MARE系统基于一种情景方法,其中隐含了考虑到现有不确定性的各种可能的未来。准确的极端事件估计需要自动监控系统和长期数据库应用程序。在本文中,检查了系统组件和数据源的详细描述。关于海浪,山洪和冰况研究的三个案例研究证明了EX-MARE系统的应用及其使用的好处。 EX-MARE系统的进一步开发假定添加有关暴露和脆弱性的数据以执行风险评估,并着重于多危害探索方法。

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