A Spatial Simulation Model to Explore Agglutination of Residential Areas and Public Service Facilities

摘要

According to a 2006 report by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan has been undergoing a long-term decline in population since 2005. The mid-term and long-term vision of urban and regional planning regards the consolidation of residential areas and public service facilities, including their withdrawal, as necessary for improving the quality of life for rural and suburban residents. From the point of view of provider’s such as the administrative and private sectors, consolidation of facilities is inevitable due to their profitability. Because of the decrease in the number of facility users and their lack of successors, brought about by population decline and aging, it is also difficult for the public administration to provide public services. The purpose of this study is to produce suggestions for sustainable urban and regional spatial structures in Japan. A spatial simulation model was used as a multi-agent-based model to analyze the mid- and long-term changes in the agglutination of residential areas and public service facilities. At first, a multi-agent-based model was developed to quantitatively evaluate the agglutination of residential areas and public service facilities. Next, sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust some of the crucial parameters that influenced simulation results. Finally, simulations were carried out based on several policy scenarios related to the sustainability and accessibility of the facilities. The results of the analysis indicated that public service facilities are likely to be concentrated in the city center, but that financial support by the administration or non-profitable organizations (NPO) enables facilities located outside of centers to sustain the provision of public service.