Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January–September 2019

摘要

The ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic (August 2018─October 2019) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has been exacerbated by deliberate attacks on healthcare workers despite vaccination efforts. Using a mathematical/statistical modelling framework, we present the quantified effective reproduction number (Rt) at national and regional levels as at 29 September. The weekly trend in Rt displays fluctuations while our recent national-level Rt falls slightly above 1.0 with substantial uncertainty, which suggests improvements in epidemic control.