Tendances et différences démographiques dans les Balkans

摘要

The Balkans, which had long been characterized by higher fertility and earlier mortality than the more western and northern parts of the European continent, have become demographically modern. They are not for that reason any less diverse. This is witnessed, for example, by the gap that separates Bulgaria, which has long made the demographic transition, and Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or Kosovo, where the natural population growth exceeds by far the migratory deficit. It is also witnessed by the very large spectrum of degrees of aging. Political and economic changes in the Balkans, the crises that accompanied them, the doubts that they have caused concerning the collective future, have reinforced the general tendencies toward delayed marriage and fertility, as well as toward reduced marriage and fertility rates. This has de facto consolidated the tendency toward demographic aging. Migrations, especially the migrations directly or indirectly related to the conflicts in former Yugoslavia, have also contributed to the modification of the demographic landscape and to the altering of the dynamic of the affected populations. They have also had an effect on the ethnic distribution of these populations. In the Balkans, whose bases have been strongly shaken in the past twenty years, heavy fertility and mortality tendencies limit the spectrum of possible mid-to-long term futures. There are also important consequences on the socioeconomic plan. All this in a political context, internal and external, that is the source of many questions.