Heavy Precipitation Events in Marmara Region and connections with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation Patterns

摘要

The prediction and understanding of the extreme weather events became one of the top priorities of the forecasting centers. To analyze the heavy rainfall events, the data from reanalysis and station datasets are utilized. The linear regression analysis and principle component analysis (PCA) are applied on precipitation, temperature, Arctic Oscillation Indices (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation Indices (NAO) datasets. The results indicate that the relationship between these variables can be expressed neither by linear regression nor by PCA, which falls in short in capturing the complexity of the problem. The results indicate the importance of low-level jet in two cases out of three cases considered here.