A SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ENERGY INTENSITY BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT THROEY IN CHINA

摘要

Energy intensity is an obligatory target in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, which means the 16% reduction of energy consumption per GDP than the end of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. This paper uses the input-output theory, the scenario analysis method and optimization theory, considering the minimum energy intensity as the single goal. A nonlinear optimization model is built for the evolution of energy intensity, using genetic algorithm to solve this problem. And it is the purpose to study the conditions of achieving the goals in 2010 of reducing China’s energy intensity by 16%. According to the present situation of the high proportion of secondary industry in our country, and the planning guide of accelerating the development of service industry, it is urgent to develop the tertiary industry in China.