Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

摘要

The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N2O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NOx), contributing to ozone depletion. CO2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N2O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO2 and N2O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO2 and N2O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960.