Alcool as the main responsible for recurrent road accidents

摘要

The identification of risk factors for recurrent road accidents is the basis for prevention, but very few studies have been published on predictors of recurrence. Our objective was to determine the main variables predicting recurrent crashes in subjects attending an Emergency Department for injuries after road accidents. Over a 5-year follow-up period, we studied 2354 consecutive adult subjects, treated in the Emergency Department following a road accident in 1998. The variables of the original event were tested for predicting recurrence in a Cox proportional hazard model. During follow-up 390/2,325 (16,8%) survivors were treated for injury after a new crash. The overall event rate was 34 per 1000 subject-years. Four variables (age ≤ 32 years, male sex, nighttime crash and blood alcohol concentration > 50 mg/dl) were identified as independent predictors of recurrent crash. After adjustment for sex, age and night-time, alcohol was the leading predictor (relative risk 3,73; 95% confidence interval 3,00-4,64). In the presence of the four variables, the recurrence rate was as high as 145 (117-175) events per 1000 subject-years, and alcohol per se accounted for over 75% of events. In the absence of the four variables, the rate was as low as 11 (7-17) events per 1000 subject-years. Alcohol was the most powerful behavioural factor predicting recurrent events in subjects treated in an Emergency Department for injury after road accidents, along with young age, male gender and night-time. There is a call to action for preventing alcohol on the roads.