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Inflation volatility: an Asian perspective

机译:通胀波动:亚洲的观点

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For the quarterly data of 10 Asian economies, ranging from the first quarter of 1991 to last quarter of 2012, we model inflation volatility as a time varying process through different symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications. We also propose to model inflation volatility on the basis of cyclic component of inflation obtained from an Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter instead of actual inflation when the latter does not fulfil the criterion of stationarity. Through news impact curves (NICs) we tried to highlight the behaviour of inflation volatility in response to lagged inflation shocks under different GARCH specifications. In our results the leverage parameter shows the expected sign and is significant for almost all countries suggesting strong asymmetry in inflation volatility. The hyperbolic sign integral shape of NICs based on Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH) highlights the importance of inflation stabilisation programmes particularly because of the subsequent evidence obtained in favour of bidirectional causality running between inflation and inflation volatility. There is also evidence in favour of the argument that a cyclic component of inflation obtained through an HP filter could be used as a suitable proxy of inflation for volatility estimation.
机译:对于1991年第一季度至2012年最后一个季度的10个亚洲经济体的季度数据,我们通过不同的对称和非对称GARCH指标将通货膨胀波动建模为随时间变化的过程。我们还建议根据从Hodrick Prescott(HP)过滤器获得的通货膨胀的周期性成分来模拟通货膨胀波动,而不是在实际通货膨胀不符合平稳性标准的情况下对通货膨胀进行建模。通过新闻影响曲线(NIC),我们试图突出显示不同GARCH规范下对滞后的通胀冲击的通胀波动行为。在我们的结果中,杠杆参数显示了预期的信号,并且对几乎所有国家都非常重要,表明通货膨胀率波动非常不对称。基于Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH(GJR-GARCH)的NIC的双曲线符号积分形状强调了通货膨胀稳定计划的重要性,特别是因为随后获得的证据表明通货膨胀和通货膨胀率之间存在双向因果关系。也有证据支持这种论点,即通过HP过滤器获得的通货膨胀的周期性成分可以用作波动率估计的合适通货替代。

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