North Atlantic Civil Aviation: Liberalization Vs. Crisis – A Regression Analysis

摘要

In 2007, the European Commission and US government signed an agreement liberalizing international air transportation between the two continents. It was expected to increase the annual number of passengers by up to 11 million and generate more than 5 billion EUR in consumer surplus. However, in 2008 the market was struck by global economic crisis. We use regression analysis to distinguish between positive impacts of liberalization and negative impacts of the crisis. We come to the conclusion that had the market not been reinforced by liberalization, annual transatlantic traffic would have shrunk at a pace 3-7 million passengers faster. The results are a clear indication that if European and US airlines want to remain competitive in the coming era of Asian dominance, further liberalization efforts have to be undertaken.Sa?etakIskustvo ste?eno u bankarskoj krizi u posljednja dva desetlje?a upu?uje na potrebu kori?tenja naprednih modela predvi?anja u svrhu prevencije propasti banaka. Ovaj rad uspore?uje sposobnost umjetnih neuronskih mre?a i strojeva s potpornim vektorima da predvide propast banaka. Iako se umjetne neuronske mre?e ?esto koriste za slo?ene probleme u poslovanju, literatura koja spominje strojeve s potpornim vektorima je relativno malobrojna a njihova sposobnost predvi?anja propasti banaka nije previ?e poznata. U ovom radu su ove dvije inteligentne tehnike primijenjene na sklop podataka turskih komercijalnih banaka. Empirijski rezultati pokazuju da iako se predvi?anje dvaju modela mo?e smatrati zadovoljavaju?im, neuronske mre?e pokazuju ne?to bolju sposobnost predvi?anja od strojeva s potpornim vektorima. Osim toga, razli?ite vrste gre?aka u svakom modelu tako?er ukazuju na to da su modeli s neuronskim mre?ama bolji prediktori.