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Assessment of uncertainty for coal quality-tonnage curves through minimum spatial cross-correlation simulation

机译:通过最小空间互相关模拟评估煤质吨位曲线的不确定性

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Coal quality-tonnage curves are helpful tools in optimum mine planning and can be estimated using geostatistical simulation methods. In the presence of spatially cross-correlated variables, traditional co-simulation methods are impractical and time consuming. This paper investigates a factor simulation approach based on minimization of spatial cross-correlations with the objective of modeling spatial relations of coal quality data and estimating quality-tonnage curves in a part of the ?merler sector of Tun?bilek coalfield (Turkey). Data come from core samples analyzed for lower calorific value, ash content and moisture content. Prior to simulation, composite data and coal seam are unfolded and the composites are also de-trended. The simulations of the original data are obtained by adding the trend values to the simulated residuals and transforming the unfolded coordinates into the original ones. 100 realizations of the coal attributes are jointly generated by Minimum Spatial Cross-correlation (MSC) simulation method. The MSC-simulations are compared to the results of a widely used joint simulation method based on the minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) technique. The comparison shows advantage of the new proposed method over the MAF technique. MSC-simulations reproduce the original data well on the basis of correlation coefficient, cumulative histograms and auto / cross-variograms. This suggests that the MSC-simulation method can be used in simulation of spatially cross correlated coal data. Quality-tonnage curve for each realization is calculated and uncertainty associated with tonnage is assessed by using a 95% confidence interval. The assessments show that the tonnage uncertainty depends on the cutoff.
机译:煤质-吨位曲线是优化矿山规划的有用工具,可以使用地统计模拟方法进行估算。在存在空间互相关变量的情况下,传统的协同仿真方法不切实际且耗时。本文研究了一种基于最小化空间互相关的因子模拟方法,目的是对Tun?bilek煤田(土耳其)菲勒勒地区的一部分煤炭质量数据的空间关系进行建模并估算质量吨位曲线。数据来自分析后的低热值,灰分和水分含量的核心样品。在进行模拟之前,先展开复合数据和煤层,然后对复合材料进行去趋势处理。通过将趋势值添加到模拟残差并将展开的坐标转换为原始坐标,可以获得原始数据的模拟。通过最小空间互相关(MSC)模拟方法共同生成了100个煤属性的实现。将MSC模拟与基于最小/最大自相关因子(MAF)技术的广泛使用的联合模拟方法的结果进行比较。比较显示了新提出的方法优于MAF技术的优势。 MSC模拟根据相关系数,累积直方图和自动/交叉变异图很好地重现了原始数据。这表明,MSC模拟方法可用于空间互相关煤数据的模拟。计算每个实现的质量吨位曲线,并使用95%置信区间评估与吨位相关的不确定性。评估显示,吨位不确定性取决于临界值。

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