机译:全球变暖1.5和2.0摄氏度时气候变化和极端气候对中国主要农作物生产力的影响
holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO_(2) concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2% (?1.7%), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5°C (2.0°C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5°C warming to 2.0°C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0°C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.
机译:全球变暖1.5和2.0摄氏度时气候变化和极端气候对中国主要农作物生产力的影响
机译:1.5和2.0°C的全球极端降水事件的影响和社会经济暴露在较高的温暖气候下
机译:1.5和2.0℃全球变暖情景下中国极端最高气温事件和人口暴露的变化:使用区域气候模型COSMO-CLM的分析
机译:基于作物模型和GIS技术的黄淮海平原气候变化对作物生产力的影响评价
机译:全球气候变化:全球变暖对发展中国家的政治影响以埃及和阿曼为例。
机译:通过更高分辨率的全球气候模型预计极端气候的变化淡水的可获得性和对粮食不安全的脆弱性将在全球升温1.5°C和2°C的情况下进行
机译:气候变化与气候极端对中国主要庄稼生产率的影响为1.5°C&2.0°C