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Food Price Inflation Rates in the Euro Zone: Distribution Dynamics and Convergence Analysis

机译:欧元区食品价格通胀率:分布动态和趋同分析

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It is widely recognized that inflation as a monetary phenomenon is determined by money supply changes. In the short run, however, several factors may lead to inflation rate differentials among different regions in the same country or among different countries in a monetary union. This paper examines the mean reversion attitude of food price inflation rates in the Euro zone, borrowing the concepts and developments from the recent growth literature and using panel unit root tests. Additionally, in order to capture sufficiently the evolving distributional dynamics, nonparametric econometric methods are also implemented. Finally, the comovement of the inflation rates among different food subgroups is also explored. The data consist of monthly observations of the EU harmonized consumer price indices of food and three different food subgroups (meat, bread and cereals, and vegetables) for the 12 older member states of the Euro zone, covering the period from 1997 to 2010. The results do not fully support the hypothesis of the food price inflation rates convergence for the whole period under investigation. Mean reversion shows up in different time periods and in different food categories. Moreover, the analysis of distribution dynamics sheds light to different aspects of convergence and highlights processes like club formation and polarization.
机译:众所周知,通货膨胀是一种货币现象,是由货币供应量变化决定的。但是,从短期来看,有几个因素可能导致同一国家不同地区之间或货币联盟不同国家之间的通货膨胀率差异。本文研究了欧元区食品价格通胀率的平均回归态度,借鉴了近期增长文献中的概念和发展,并使用面板单位根检验。另外,为了充分捕捉不断发展的分布动力学,还实施了非参数计量经济学方法。最后,还探讨了不同食品亚类之间通货膨胀率的共同变化。数据包括1997年至2010年期间欧盟对欧元区12个较老成员国的食品和三个不同食品亚组(肉,面包,谷类和蔬菜)的欧盟消费价格指数的每月观测值。结果并未完全支持整个调查期间食品价格通胀率趋同的假设。平均回归出现在不同的时间段和不同的食物类别中。此外,对分布动力学的分析揭示了趋同的不同方面,并强调了诸如球杆形成和极化的过程。

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