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Estimation of the high-spatial-resolution variability in extreme wind speeds for forestry applications

机译:林业应用中极端风速下高空间分辨率变化的估计

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The bioeconomy has an increasing role to play in climate change mitigation and the sustainable development of national economies. In Finland, a forested country, over 50?% of the current bioeconomy relies on the sustainable management and utilization of forest resources. Wind storms are a major risk that forests are exposed to and high-spatial-resolution analysis of the most vulnerable locations can produce risk assessment of forest management planning. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of the wind multiplier approach for downscaling of maximum wind speed, using 20?m spatial resolution CORINE land-use dataset and high-resolution digital elevation data. A coarse spatial resolution estimate of the 10-year return level of maximum wind speed was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalyzed data. Using a geospatial re-mapping technique the data were downscaled to 26 meteorological station locations to represent very diverse environments. Applying a comparison, we find that the downscaled 10-year return levels represent 66?% of the observed variation among the stations examined. In addition, the spatial variation in wind-multiplier-downscaled 10-year return level wind was compared with the WAsP model-simulated wind. The heterogeneous test area was situated in northern Finland, and it was found that the major features of the spatial variation were similar, but in some locations, there were relatively large differences. The results indicate that the wind multiplier method offers a pragmatic and computationally feasible tool for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations with the highest forest wind damage risks. It can also be used to provide the necessary wind climate information for wind damage risk model calculations, thus making it possible to estimate the probability of predicted threshold wind speeds for wind damage and consequently the probability (and amount) of wind damage for certain forest stand configurations.
机译:生物经济在缓解气候变化和国民经济的可持续发展中起着越来越重要的作用。在拥有森林的国家芬兰,目前超过50%的生物经济依赖于森林资源的可持续管理和利用。暴风雨是森林所面临的主要风险,对最脆弱地区的高空间分辨率分析可以对森林管理规划进行风险评估。在本文中,我们使用20?m空间分辨率的CORINE土地利用数据集和高分辨率的数字高程数据,检验了采用风增倍法降低最大风速的可行性。从ERA-Interim重新分析的数据中获得了最大风速10年回报水平的粗略空间分辨率估计。使用地理空间重新映射技术,将数据缩小到26个气象站位置,以表示非常不同的环境。通过比较,我们发现缩小的10年回报水平代表了所检查站点之间观测到的变化的66%。另外,将乘风乘数缩减的10年回风水平风的空间变化与WAsP模型模拟的风进行了比较。异构测试区位于芬兰北部,发现空间变化的主要特征相似,但在某些位置存在较大差异。结果表明,风向乘积法提供了一种实用且在计算上可行的工具,可在高空间分辨率下识别出森林风害风险最高的那些位置。它也可以用于为风灾风险模型计算提供必要的风气候信息,从而可以估算风灾的预测阈值风速的概率,从而估算某些林分的风灾概率(和数量)配置。

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