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Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions

机译:预测分布的广义池的贝叶斯校准

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Decision-makers often consult different experts to build reliable forecasts on variables of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximize the forecast accuracy is consequently a crucial issue in several economic problems. This paper applies a Bayesian beta mixture model to derive a combined and calibrated density function using random calibration functionals and random combination weights. In particular, it compares the application of linear, harmonic and logarithmic pooling in the Bayesian combination approach. The three combination schemes, i.e ., linear, harmonic and logarithmic, are studied in simulation examples with multimodal densities and an empirical application with a large database of stock data. All of the experiments show that in a beta mixture calibration framework, the three combination schemes are substantially equivalent, achieving calibration, and no clear preference for one of them appears. The financial application shows that the linear pooling together with beta mixture calibration achieves the best results in terms of calibrated forecast.
机译:决策者通常会咨询不同的专家,以对感兴趣的变量建立可靠的预测。因此,结合更多的意见并对其进行校准以最大程度地提高预测准确性是几个经济问题中的关键问题。本文应用贝叶斯贝塔混合模型,使用随机校准函数和随机组合权重来导出组合和校准的密度函数。特别是,它比较了贝叶斯组合方法中线性,谐波和对数合并的应用。在具有多峰密度的模拟示例中以及在大型库存数据数据库的经验应用中,研究了线性,谐波和对数这三种组合方案。所有实验均表明,在Beta混合物校准框架中,这三种组合方案基本等效,可以实现校准,并且对其中一种方案没有明显的偏好。该财务应用程序显示,线性池与Beta混合物校准一起可在校准预测方面达到最佳结果。

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