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Parametric and Nonparametric Frequentist Model Selection and Model Averaging

机译:参数和非参数频率模型选择和模型平均

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This paper presents recent developments in model selection and model averaging for parametric and nonparametric models. While there is extensive literature on model selection under parametric settings, we present recently developed results in the context of nonparametric models. In applications, estimation and inference are often conducted under the selected model without considering the uncertainty from the selection process. This often leads to inefficiency in results and misleading confidence intervals. Thus an alternative to model selection is model averaging where the estimated model is the weighted sum of all the submodels. This reduces model uncertainty. In recent years, there has been significant interest in model averaging and some important developments have taken place in this area. We present results for both the parametric and nonparametric cases. Some possible topics for future research are also indicated.
机译:本文介绍了参数模型和非参数模型的模型选择和模型平均的最新进展。尽管有大量关于在参数设置下进行模型选择的文献,但我们在非参数模型的背景下介绍了最近开发的结果。在应用中,估计和推论通常是在所选模型下进行的,而不考虑选择过程的不确定性。这通常会导致结果效率低下和误导置信区间。因此,模型选择的替代方法是模型平均,其中估计模型是所有子模型的加权和。这样可以减少模型的不确定性。近年来,人们对模型平均产生了浓厚的兴趣,并且在这一领域也发生了一些重要的发展。我们给出了参数和非参数情况的结果。还指出了一些可能用于未来研究的主题。

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